(11:15AM – Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025) Wednesday morning update on a potent storm system moving through the region, with with continued rain/t’storm activity affecting the state through tonight. Severe t’storms will be continue to be likely with some of this activity.
Timing…
•This Morning – Tonight, April 2nd.
Location…
•All of Illinois.
Impacts…
•A level 1 to 4 severe t’storm risk is in place state-wide, for the likelihood of isolated to numerous severe t’storms.
•All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized across Eastern and Southern Illinois.
•All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized across Eastern and Southern Illinois.
Update…
•With this update, we have increased and expanded severe t’storm probabilities across East-Cental and Southern Illinois. We have also decreased severe t’storm probabilities across Northern Illinois. Now that we have been able to watch in real time how overnight/morning activity has evolved and what impact it may have on the main event today, we have been able to make adjustments to fine-tune the forecast for this final forecast issuance.
Discussion…
•Areas of rain and t’storms have been traversing the state overnight and into this morning, with even a few isolated severe t’storms having occurred. Additional waves of activity can be expected across the state through tonight, with a continued severe t’storm threat.
As has been discussed, a lot of uncertainty regarding today’s main severe t’storm threat revolved around how overnight/morning activity would evolve, and how it would impact the main event for today. We have been monitoring things, and have been able to make adjustments to fine-tune the forecast for this final forecast issuance.
Broken areas of rain and t’storms have been traversing the state this morning, also extending down into Missouri and Arkansas as well. This activity is remnants of severe t’storm activity occurring across the Plains last evening/night. As this activity tracks further eastward across through the afternoon, it will fester, with re-intensification and development of new activity to occur during this afternoon in the undisturbed open warm sector, across Eastern-Central and Southern Illinois…on down into Southern Missouri and Arkansas. Once this occurs, this activity will traverse especially East-Central and Southern Illinois into tonight.
Further to the north and west, across much of the northern half of the state, the threat is dependent on enough recovery occurring and quickly enough, allowing for another round of activity to potentially develop. The most probable scenario at this moment is that a corridor of some recovery occurs across Northeast Missouri, Eastern Iowa, into Northern and West-Central Illinois. A line of that isolated showers/t’storms may develop along and ahead the main advancing cold front, with this activity then traversing northern half of the state, should it develop. A severe t’storm threat will be possible with this activity, should this scenario unfold, with all modes of severe weather then being possible. Across this corridor, the threat is very conditional, but remains possible.
