(10:00AM – Sunday, March 30th, 2025) Sunday morning update on a storm system moving through the region, bringing with it a round or two of rain/t’storms and severe t’storms, which will traverse the state between this morning and tonight.
Timing…
•Sunday Morning – Sunday Night, March 30th.
Location…
•Much of Illinois.
Impacts…
•A level 1 to 3 severe t’storm risk is in place across much of the state for the likelihood of isolated to scattered severe t’storms.
•All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized across Eastern and Southern Illinois.
•Environmental conditions will be supportive of the possibility of occurrences of: Strong tornadoes, damaging winds 75MPH+, corridors of widespread/significant wind damage and hail larger than 2.00”.
Update…
•With this update, we have brought level 2/3 severe t’storm probabilities northward across East-Central Illinois and vicinity. This change was based on increased confidence in higher coverage severe t’storma ctivity being possible, as well as a more favorable look on morning weather guidance and real-time observations.
Discussion…
•As a storm system moves through the region, showers and t’storms will be likely across the state from this morning through tonight, with a severe t’storm threat expected with this activity. A weakening line of showers and t’storms will move into portions Southwestern/Central Illinois late this morning/midday. It is likely that re-development of activity will occur during the midday and afternoon, across the heart of the state. This activity will north move northeast/east, across especially Northeastern and Eastern Illinois this afternoon, pose a severe t’storm threat, with all modes of severe weather possible. Of greater focus will be across Southern Illinois, roughly from near I-70 on southward. Within this region, ample moisture, instability, shear, and high lapse rates will be in place and juxtaposed to one another. The development of showers and t’storms will likely occur during the afternoon across Southern Missouri, Northern Arkansas and Southern Illinois, along both an advancing cold front and the southern end of a remnant outflow boundary. Scattered severe t’storms of mixed mode (supercells/QLCS) will be likely with this activity, as it traverses Southern Illinois between this afternoon and tonight. All modes of severe weather will be likely, including large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Forecast soundings on weather guidance shows the presence of adequate lower level SRH and nicely looped lower level hodographs, suggesting tornado threat will most definitely be possible. Additionally, environmental conditions will be supportive of the possibility of occurrences of strong tornadoes, damaging winds 75MPH+, corridors of widespread/significant wind damage and hail larger than 2.00”. There severe t’storm threat will come to an end across the state as a whole early tonight, prior to midnight tonight/Monday morning.
