(11:00AM – Thursday, August 15th, 2024) Thursday morning update on a storm system that will continue to move through the region, bringing multiple rounds of rain and t’storms to the state from through early Friday night. Severe t’storms will be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during specific timeframes.
Update…
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for today/tonight, we have slightly expanded the areal coverage of the level 2 severe t’storm threat across portions of the state. Otherwise, little change was needed, with the going forecast on track based on real-time data and the latest model guidance.
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for Friday, little to no changes were needed, as the going forecast is on track.
Timing & Location…
•This Morning – Early Friday Morning, August 15-16th: All of Illinois.
•Early Friday Morning – Early Friday Night, August 16th: Northern, Eastern & Southern Illinois.
Impacts…
•A level 1 to 2 severe t’storm risk is in place across much of Illinois from this morning through early Friday morning for the likelihood of isolated to widely scattered severe t’storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado will be the threats from activity.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across portions of Northern, Eastern, and Southern Illinois from early Friday morning through early Friday night for the likelihood of isolated severe t’storms. Damaging winds and hail will be the threats from activity.
Discussion…
•With a storm system moving through the region, multiple rounds of rain and t’storms are expected to traverse the state from early Thursday through early Friday night.
•For the timeframe of this morning through early Friday morning, an initial round of rain and t’storms has been moving across the state this morning and will continue to do so into the early afternoon. In the wake of this first round of activity, clearing and atmospheric recovery will occur. A second round of t’storms will develop in scattered fashion Thursday afternoon across a large corridor of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. This activity will then track across portions of the state from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity across the specific outlooked area during this timeframe.
•For the timeframe of early Friday morning through early Friday night, remaining activity may still be ongoing early Friday morning across Eastern and Southern Illinois, potentially with an isolated severe t’storm threat. For the remainder of the day, multiple forcing mechanisms moving through the region will aid in the development of isolated to scattered showers and t’storms developing in the region, including across portions of the state. Northern, Eastern, and Southern Illinois will be most favored for this round of activity from Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity across the specific outlooked area during this timeframe.
