(11:30PM – Tuesday, July 30th, 2024) Tuesday night update on a “Ring of Fire” pattern in place, featuring multiple disturbances moving through the region with an enhanced upper level flow in place atop ridging across the Southern Plains and Southern Mississippi Valley. Clusters of rain/t’storms will continue to be likely on a daily/nightly basis across portions of the state during this period. Severe t’storms will be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during this timeframe.
Update…
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for tonight, we have adjusted severe t’storm threat level and coverage based on real-time data/observations and the latest trends in weather model guidance.
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for Wednesday/Wednesday night, we have increased the severe t’storm threat level across portions of the state. This change was made based on the latest trends.
•With this update, we have issued our first severe t’storm forecast for the Thursday/Thursday night period.
Timing & Location…
•Tonight – Early Wednesday Morning, July 30-31st: Western Illinois.
•Early Wednesday Morning – Early Thursday Morning, July 31st-August 1st: Much of Illinois.
•Early Thursday Morning – Thursday Night, August 1st: All of Illinois.
Impacts…
•A level 1 to 2 severe t’storm risk is in place across Western Illinois from this tonight through early Wednesday morning for the possibility of isolated to widely scattered severe t’storms. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats from activity.
•A level 1 to 2 severe t’storm risk is in place across much of Illinois from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning for the likelihood of isolated to widely scattered severe t’storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado will be the main threats from activity.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across all of Illinois from early Thursday morning through Thursday night for the likelihood of isolated severe t’storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado will be the main threats from activity.
Discussion…
•Clusters of rain/t’storms will continue to be likely across the state on a daily/nightly basis during this period. Severe t’storms will also continue to be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during this timeframe.
•For this tonight through early Wednesday morning, another complex of showers/t’storm may develop late tonight/early Wednesday morning across Iowa. If this occurs, this complex would then push into Western Illinois early Wednesday morning and would pose a severe t’storm threat.
•For early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning, a few clusters of rain/t’storms will be likely across the state. This first may be across Central and Southern Illinois Wednesday morning/midday, with another round potentially across a much larger portion of the state for Wednesday night. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity across Northern Illinois.
•For early Thursday morning through Thursday night, a few clusters of rain/t’storms will be likely across the state. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity across Northern Illinois.
